Cognitive Uncertainty in Syllogistic Reasoning: An Alternative Mental Models Theory

In this paper we propose a mental models theory of syllogistic reasoning which does not incorporate a falsification procedure and clearly specifies which conclusions will be generated and in what order of preference. It is assumed the models constructed vary in terms of the number of uncertain representations of end terms, and the directness of the representation of the subjects of valid conclusions. These key factors determine which quantified conclusion will be generated, as well as the varying tendency to respond that "nothing follows". The theory is shown to provide a close fit to meta-analysis data derived from past experiments.